The Handicapper is a handicapping tool for MLB-betting. The program is the result of several years of studies and countless hours of work in the fields of general baseball knowledge, sabermetrics and some hardcore trial-and-error programming. All the knowledge I have gained throughout this process is reflected in the simulation result of a single MLB-game. Version 4 is the first version that runs without Microsoft Excel.
The heart and soul of The Handicapper is its simulation algorithm. The simulation is a Monte Carlo, which uses player probabilities, ballpark and weather data as input to generate a score matrix and player stats for the simulated matchup. The creation of the input data is a dynamic process, which takes into account current- and historical player stats, player trends, platoon splits (player stats vs. right-/left handed batters/pitchers), park factors (different ballparks has different run environments) and weather impact (temperature and wind speed and direction).
The input data is created on a daily basis by Eastside Sports Analysis and uploaded to the website. The data package can then be downloaded via The Handicapper (the software recognizes whether there is an update available). The data package includes about 17,000 text-files, which contains game-, team-, player- and lineup data to name some.
The user can choose what data and in which manner to user it. The simulation starts by initializing the input data. In this part of the process probability outcomes are created for each batter vs. pitcher matchup. The simulation algorithm is then using these probabilities when playing the game (simulating) x-number of times. If a game is simulated e.g. 10,000 times, there are on average about 750,000 randomized events that occurs. The result of the simulation process is a score matrix, which includes the result (occurrence of each individual result) from the 10,000 simulations.
In addition to what data to use, the user can also modify starting pitchers, lineups and bullpens if lineup information for a matchup has not been made public yet.
Odds and lines are from Pinnacle (www.pinnacle.com). As a bookmaker and market maker Pinnacle is regarded as the best in business in bettor friendly lines and general accountability. The Handicapper offers the option for clients of Pinnacle to place bets via the software. Eastside Sports Analysis have no formal or informal relationship with Pinnacle.
The Handicapper also have some automation features. It is possible to automate the update of betting lines, lineups or weather information. It’s also possible to build an auto-bet logic, where bets are automatically placed when some user-defined criteria are met.
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