Pinnacle Sports have released their Over/Under Win Totals for the 2015 season so it's time to take a look at their lines and compare them to my projections.
The table below has Pinnacle's line for total wins, their odds and my win projection. The Diff shows the difference between my projection and Pinnacles line. As I consider Pinnacle to be one of the best bookies with the sharpest lines I am happy that there is not that much difference between my projections and theirs. At the moment the best bets looks to be Texas Rangers Under 78.5 wins, Colorado Rockies Over 71.5 wins and San Diego Padres Under 84.5 wins.
San Diego Padres have spent heavily this winter and on paper and in TV-pundit-terms they look a lot stronger than last year. Looking at their roster from a strictly sabermetric point of view it look like they might not have upgraded as much as they would have hoped for. Offensively their new outfield consisting of Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and Wil Myers should definitely be an upgrade but defensively not so much. Same can be said of new catcher Derek Norris.
I admit that my projection for Colorado Rockies is a bit aggressive considering they won 66 games in 2014 and haven't upgraded that much this winter. Their starting rotation is still weak (knowing that their pitcher's numbers are deflated by the Coors Field effect) but their lineup looks pretty solid (knowing that their batter's numbers are inflated by the Coors Field effect). The big question is of course if Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez can stay healthy (which they haven't the past few years). Even if the duo should spend some time on the disabled list 71.5 wins looks pretty low.
Later today or tomorrow I will take a look at the rest of the prop bets Pinnacle Sports is offering.
Take a look at the updated Projected Standings.