Pinnacle Sports have released their Regular Season Long Props for the 2015 season. Some of the propositions are worth taking a closer look at.
HIGHEST HOME RUN TOTAL FOR MLB BATTER?
Under 43.5 Home Runs @ -108 (1.925)
Due to improved pitching (and other factors) the life of an MLB-batter is harder than it has been in years. Few batters could still reach 40 homers this season if their hitting is above expected levels. Based on my season simulation four players reached the 30 homer mark:
Two standard deviations of upside should be considered but still Under 43.5 Home Runs @ -108 (1.925) seems like a decent offer.
MOST STOLEN BASES FOR MLB PLAYER?
Under 63.5 Steals @ -108 (1.925)
Billy Hamilton might be the only player who could be considered having a chance at stealing over 60 bases this coming season. Dee Gordon should not be able to get on base at a 0.325 rate (as he did in 2014 when he stole 64 bases). Hamilton faces a tough challenge in NL Central with at least three pretty good defending opponent catchers in Yadier Molina (STL), Miguel Montero (CHC) and Jonathan Lucroy (MIL).
LOWEST WIN TOTAL FOR ANY MLB TEAM?
Over 63.5 Wins @ -108 (1.925)