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MLB 2015 - Projected Final Standings, edition 2

22/1/2015

By Harri Kairavuo | eastsideportsanalysis.com

When the first edition of Projected Standings was released on the 6th of January, I was hoping to be able to compare the next edition of the projections to available market odds. I am going to wait for Pinnacle Sports to release their odds so there is no comparison together with edition 2 of projected standings.

As in the first edition current depth-chart, projected playing time for each player and the schedule of each team is used in team construction. Each team consists of a five-man-rotation, a batting lineup of nine batters (eight + league average pitcher in games where NL-team is the home-team) and an eight man bullpen.

AMERICAN LEAGUE				NATIONAL LEAGUE
TEAM	W	L	W%	TEAM	W	L	W%
TOR	84	78	51.9 %	WSN	90	72	55.6 %
BOS	84	78	51.9 %	MIA	84	78	51.9 %
NYY	81	81	50.0 %	NYM	79	83	48.8 %
BAL	80	82	49.4 %	ATL	73	89	45.1 %
TBR	79	83	48.8 %	PHI	69	93	42.6 %

TEAM	W	L	W%	TEAM	W	L	W%
DET	86	76	53.1 %	STL	88	74	54.3 %
CLE	84	78	51.9 %	PIT	86	76	53.1 %
KCR	79	83	48.8 %	MIL	82	80	50.6 %
CHW	79	83	48.8 %	CHC	81	81	50.0 %
MIN	70	92	43.2 %	CIN	78	84	48.1 %

TEAM	W	L	W%	TEAM	W	L	W%
SEA	89	73	54.9 %	LAD	93	69	57.4 %
LAA	87	75	53.7 %	SFG	84	78	51.9 %
OAK	83	79	51.2 %	COL	80	82	49.4 %
HOU	75	87	46.3 %	SDP	78	84	48.1 %
TEX	72	90	44.4 %	ARI	73	89	45.1 %

Some bigger changes compared to the first edition has occurred due to some player transactions, revised player projections and updated depth charts. Biggest movers are Nationals +6 wins, Tigers +4 wins and Twins -4 wins. The Nationals +6 wins is not only due to the Max Scherzer addition (only adds 1-2 wins) but a sum of all the variables described above.

The Handicapper was used to simulate each game.

The projections will be updated irregularly until the beginning of the MLB Regular Season.

7 Comments

Phil Marrs

27/1/2015 01:48:47 pm

You mean to tell me the Padres record wont improve in 2015 with the revamped batting line up and high quality pitching.... Im looking at atleast a 90 win season...

Eastside Sports Analysis / Harri K link

28/1/2015 07:35:53 am

Thank you for your comment.

As you mention San Diego has restructured their lineup. If things proceed as projected, they will field a whole new outfield in 2015. On paper and without deeper analysis, an outfield consisting of Upton, Myers and Kemp looks good. Both Upton and Kemp are proven hitters and Myers was a few years ago one of the most highly regarded prospects in the game. A fact is though that none of these players are good fielders, and with Kemp's recent injury history and Myers struggles last season the trio should only be considered (projected) a slight upgrade. Derek Norris also provides some improved batting ability to the lineup but the offensive upgrade comes with some questions regarding his defensive skills. As a group the Padres batters are below league average both offensively and defensively. The Padres should create more runs the upcoming season but they will probably also give up more runs than in 2014.

The Padres won 77 games in 2014. After simulating the 2015 season with current schedules, depth charts and player projections the Padres ends up with 79 wins. Their starting rotation and bullpen is definitely above average and if their lineup possessed league average defensive skills you could add 3-4 wins to their projection. 90 wins is of course possible, but at least according to my projections highly unlikely.

Lukas

8/2/2015 03:27:04 pm

I think that what is forgotten about the Padres is that they have had a pretty good coaching staff that was very good at improving the defensive skills of position players. Especially at positions they weren't used to playing. (AKA Myers in CF) This is something that shouldn't be forgotten.

8/2/2015 03:31:29 pm

Also, they look as if they could be signing Shields, which should bump them up 3 games alone.

8/2/2015 11:49:24 pm

That's a good point Lukas. Managerial decission making and player coaching is of course an important part of the game. Manager ability could of course be an input in ones handicapping model, but as far as I know, this part of the game is very hard to quantify. The same could be said of the impact of coaching and player development. What I am trying to say is that Myers might become a good center fielder with the help of Padres coaching, but I don't have the tools to make an accurate enough prediction of that to happen.

Ethan C.

9/2/2015 07:14:27 pm

Looks more realistic than edition 1. Can't believe in 5 years the Phillies went from top spot to dead last that quickly. Embarassing!!!

10/2/2015 05:03:06 am

Toronto's lineup looks offensively pretty good. The pitching rotation is decent at best and the bullpen should get contribution from from Aaron Loup and Brett Cecil. Behind them it looks a bit thin. I am going to run a new set of simulations next week and I could take a closer look at Blue Jays bullpen in addition to analyzing what James Shields adds to a already strong Padres rotation.

As you mention the Phillies are not going to contend now and probably not in the near future.

MLB 2015 - Projected Final Standings, edition 2

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