Most articles with the topic/title including/starting with “How to bet on ...” or ”How to win on ...” are usually written on a very general level and doesn’t bring much to the table. The articles also usually include a list of 5-10 things to do / not to do, for example “Bet on home underdogs” or “Bankroll management - avoid parlays”. Bankroll management is for sure very important for a successive sports bettor, but all kind of advice that includes some kind of trend following or using some simple patterns, are basically worthless.
There are several ways of how to be a successful sports bettor. In the end the key is to have more money in the long run than you had in the beginning, and if one gets there by betting on home underdogs then that’s great. But to think there exists simple rules like that is to underestimate the efficiency of the sports betting market. In hindsight it’s always possible to find “strategies” that would have been very good. Usually these “strategies” have issues with look ahead bias, data-mining bias etc.
Another thing with these articles is that they usually never have any advice on how to get to the point that you know which side to bet on. It’s indirectly assumed that you now which side to bet on or then follow simple rules or trends that the article calls advice. This said, my take is that I believe in a systematic approach, whether it’s quantitative or quantamental (a combination of quantitative and fundamental approach).
Quantitative and fundamental approaches to sports betting
There’s nothing wrong with a purely fundamental approach. If it works for you and you make money with it, there’s no one that can challenge that. My point is more that if you do things fundamentally, which in this case means deciding on which side to bet on by just doing some kind of reasoning, you would probably be better of by using a quantitative approach to systematize as much as possible of your reasoning. Whether you recognize it or not, you probably reason around the same team or player stats/number every time you make a decision. If this is the case, why not just automate this part and save time for you to reason around something else within the matchup, that maybe is not that easily quantifiable.
Quant and fundamental don’t offset each other, in my opinion they complement each other. Just remember when relying on a fundamental approach (gut feeling), that your brain has a tendency to trick you into (sometimes) bad decisions. In the worst case you could rely on things like betting on a team because you won your bet the last time you bet on them and your brain got a positive reward (emotions). Try to make your decisions on the same basis every time. Don’t choose a side first and then try to find some numbers that back your view.
The Handicapper
The Handicapper is a web application that uses a quantitative approach to create projections and calculate probabilities for sports matchup. The application uses dynamic and predictive algorithms to handicap games. You can choose to tune the model parameters according to own preferences, or use back-tested default settings to create accurate, data-driven predictions for every game of the season.
The power of The Handicapper is its huge player database. Each game prediction consists of bottom-up player analysis and evaluation. The prediction engine uses a number of different quantitative methods like moving averages, exponential smoothing, z-scores etc. Data-driven player evaluation is the key, but you can also implement your own team- and player ratings, if you feel you have a good grasp of how good teams/players are in relation to each other.
So basically what The Handicapper does/can do for you, is that it creates a quantitative projection to which you can easily and effectively implement your own quantitative or fundamental views. It splits the projection to team offense-, defense- and player levels. This means, that if you for example don’t think the model based rating for Chicago Cubs bullpen is not a reflection of their true ability, you can easily adjust the rating, which leads to the projection for the matchup as whole to change. Or if you think Nolan Arenado should have a better offensive rating you can likewise easily adjust it.
You can also adjust the weights for the model parameters. If you for example don’t think ERA should have an impact on how player ability (ratings) is calculated, you can set the weight for the ERA parameter to 0% and give more weight to some other(s) parameter(s) that is/are available.
Below is a step-by-step guide of how you can use The Handicapper to make better betting decisions.
Another thing with these articles is that they usually never have any advice on how to get to the point that you know which side to bet on. It’s indirectly assumed that you now which side to bet on or then follow simple rules or trends that the article calls advice. This said, my take is that I believe in a systematic approach, whether it’s quantitative or quantamental (a combination of quantitative and fundamental approach).
Quantitative and fundamental approaches to sports betting
There’s nothing wrong with a purely fundamental approach. If it works for you and you make money with it, there’s no one that can challenge that. My point is more that if you do things fundamentally, which in this case means deciding on which side to bet on by just doing some kind of reasoning, you would probably be better of by using a quantitative approach to systematize as much as possible of your reasoning. Whether you recognize it or not, you probably reason around the same team or player stats/number every time you make a decision. If this is the case, why not just automate this part and save time for you to reason around something else within the matchup, that maybe is not that easily quantifiable.
Quant and fundamental don’t offset each other, in my opinion they complement each other. Just remember when relying on a fundamental approach (gut feeling), that your brain has a tendency to trick you into (sometimes) bad decisions. In the worst case you could rely on things like betting on a team because you won your bet the last time you bet on them and your brain got a positive reward (emotions). Try to make your decisions on the same basis every time. Don’t choose a side first and then try to find some numbers that back your view.
The Handicapper
The Handicapper is a web application that uses a quantitative approach to create projections and calculate probabilities for sports matchup. The application uses dynamic and predictive algorithms to handicap games. You can choose to tune the model parameters according to own preferences, or use back-tested default settings to create accurate, data-driven predictions for every game of the season.
The power of The Handicapper is its huge player database. Each game prediction consists of bottom-up player analysis and evaluation. The prediction engine uses a number of different quantitative methods like moving averages, exponential smoothing, z-scores etc. Data-driven player evaluation is the key, but you can also implement your own team- and player ratings, if you feel you have a good grasp of how good teams/players are in relation to each other.
So basically what The Handicapper does/can do for you, is that it creates a quantitative projection to which you can easily and effectively implement your own quantitative or fundamental views. It splits the projection to team offense-, defense- and player levels. This means, that if you for example don’t think the model based rating for Chicago Cubs bullpen is not a reflection of their true ability, you can easily adjust the rating, which leads to the projection for the matchup as whole to change. Or if you think Nolan Arenado should have a better offensive rating you can likewise easily adjust it.
You can also adjust the weights for the model parameters. If you for example don’t think ERA should have an impact on how player ability (ratings) is calculated, you can set the weight for the ERA parameter to 0% and give more weight to some other(s) parameter(s) that is/are available.
Below is a step-by-step guide of how you can use The Handicapper to make better betting decisions.
1 Launch The Handicapper.
2 Select a matchup from top menu.
3 Observe the (A) projection or adjust (B) settings, (C) lineups and/or ratings.
(A) Projection
This is the most important information where all data and calculations are compressed to a single number. The projections are dependent on the user-defined handicapping settings. From the example above we can see that the projected score for the game is away team Baltimore Orioles (BAL) 3.2 runs and home team Toronto Blue Jays (TOR) 4.4 runs. The probability that BAL will win the game (ML=moneyline) is 31,9% and TOR 68.1%. The probability that BAL will win the game when they are given a +1.5 run advantage (spread or runline) is 49.0% and probability for TOR when reduced -1.5 runs is 51.0%. The projected totals line for the game is 7.5 runs and the probability that there will be more runs scored is 50.6% and less runs 49.4%.
The probabilities can be converted to fair odds by pressing the Fair Odds button.
(B) Settings
The adjustable settings are the core feature of The Handicapper. By configuring the settings to match your believes of whats important and what's not (which stats and ratings to use etc.), you can turn your believes into a number (probability).
Player settings determines how the player model(s) for offense- and defense ability looks. The more/less weight you give to a metric, the more/less that metric impacts the overall offense/defense rating for a player.
(C) Lineups and ratings
The Handicapper uses projected best lineups for MLB rosters. The lineups can be modified by the user. Each team should have a starting pitcher, 8 (National League) or 9 (American League) batters and 7 relief pitchers selected. Player positions does not have an impact on defensive ratings.
Player ratings have an impact on team ratings. Players in starting lineup have a higher impact on team ratings. The ratings lower limit is 40 and upper 99 and they are normalized to the range 40-99 with an average of 63 and median of 62 for MLB.
2 Select a matchup from top menu.
3 Observe the (A) projection or adjust (B) settings, (C) lineups and/or ratings.
(A) Projection
This is the most important information where all data and calculations are compressed to a single number. The projections are dependent on the user-defined handicapping settings. From the example above we can see that the projected score for the game is away team Baltimore Orioles (BAL) 3.2 runs and home team Toronto Blue Jays (TOR) 4.4 runs. The probability that BAL will win the game (ML=moneyline) is 31,9% and TOR 68.1%. The probability that BAL will win the game when they are given a +1.5 run advantage (spread or runline) is 49.0% and probability for TOR when reduced -1.5 runs is 51.0%. The projected totals line for the game is 7.5 runs and the probability that there will be more runs scored is 50.6% and less runs 49.4%.
The probabilities can be converted to fair odds by pressing the Fair Odds button.
(B) Settings
The adjustable settings are the core feature of The Handicapper. By configuring the settings to match your believes of whats important and what's not (which stats and ratings to use etc.), you can turn your believes into a number (probability).
Player settings determines how the player model(s) for offense- and defense ability looks. The more/less weight you give to a metric, the more/less that metric impacts the overall offense/defense rating for a player.
(C) Lineups and ratings
The Handicapper uses projected best lineups for MLB rosters. The lineups can be modified by the user. Each team should have a starting pitcher, 8 (National League) or 9 (American League) batters and 7 relief pitchers selected. Player positions does not have an impact on defensive ratings.
Player ratings have an impact on team ratings. Players in starting lineup have a higher impact on team ratings. The ratings lower limit is 40 and upper 99 and they are normalized to the range 40-99 with an average of 63 and median of 62 for MLB.
