By Harri Kairavuo | eastsideportsanalysis.com
Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) is a huge thing at the moment. That said, I am not going write about the rocket-like expansion of the DFS-industry or give some 'how to win on fantasy baseball' -advice. The web is full of this type of articles and 'advice'. Instead, I give a brief introduction in how to use The Handicapper to generate efficient lineups for daily fantasy baseball.
Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) is a huge thing at the moment. That said, I am not going write about the rocket-like expansion of the DFS-industry or give some 'how to win on fantasy baseball' -advice. The web is full of this type of articles and 'advice'. Instead, I give a brief introduction in how to use The Handicapper to generate efficient lineups for daily fantasy baseball.
The Handicapper
The Handicapper is an Microsoft Excel-based software that can be used to simulate every MLB-game. The heart and soul of the software is a simulation algorithm, which uses dynamic player data and statistics to calculate probabilities for different outcomes.
The degree to which current season- and historical data is used is a function of current season and historical season plate appearances (batters) and innings pitched (pitchers). Current season stats are weighed more heavily as the season goes on. The algorithm plays through every match-up between the pitcher and batter (plate appearance) and every event on the base-paths. Each time a hitter and pitcher face each other unique probabilities are generated for each possible outcome based on projections, which takes into account both offensive- and defensive abilities. The possible outcomes are:
1B (single), 2B (double), 3B (triple), HR (home run), BB (bases on balls/walk), IBB (intentional bases
on balls), HBP (hit by pitch), K (strikeout), GO/FO (groundout/flyout), SB (stolen base) and CS
(caught stealing).
The result of the simulation process is a result-matrix and a variety of different player stats.
Park factors are used to adjust the player probabilities, because every ballpark has its own characteristics. For example San Francisco Giants AT&T Park is a pitcher friendly ballpark and the Colorado Rockies Coors Field a hitter friendly ballpark. The differences stem from the weather conditions and the size and form of the field. This is very important from a fantasy baseball perspective, because the scoring system for example by DraftKings or FanDuel doesn't adjust for park factors. This means, that a good hitter has less value when playing in an pitcher friendly park and vice versa. Same goes for pitchers as an average pitcher might have nice value in a game played in a pitcher friendly ballpark and vice versa.
Selecting Daily Fantasy lineups
When all games for a game day are simulated projected fantasy points for each player can be created. This is done by launching the Fantasy Lineup Generator and generating data for selected game day.
When all games for a game day are simulated projected fantasy points for each player can be created. This is done by launching the Fantasy Lineup Generator and generating data for selected game day.
If you are fan of sabermetrics, believe in the power of simulation and have faith in the game simulation algorithm created for The Handicapper, your choice is to maximize Projected Points.
At the moment only DraftKings's scoring system and player salaries is available.
The Handicapper can be downloaded for free throughout the 2015 MLB-season.
At the moment only DraftKings's scoring system and player salaries is available.
The Handicapper can be downloaded for free throughout the 2015 MLB-season.
