By Harri Kairavuo | eastsideportsanalysis.com
The Totals picks have got off to a slow start in the first days of MLB Regular Season. As there is no point in making any deeper analysis after a few days and a couple of picks, I am just making some notes about my thoughts.
The Totals picks have got off to a slow start in the first days of MLB Regular Season. As there is no point in making any deeper analysis after a few days and a couple of picks, I am just making some notes about my thoughts.
The Handicapper is working as expected and the simulation results are logical and consistent. For moneyline picks the result have been very good so far and I feel that the simulation results gives a pretty good picture of what can be expected of upcoming games. With Totals-picks it might still be a bit early to say, but it seems like there is a bigger gap to the market than with side-picks (moneyline and runline). A lot of value have been found so far, especially in Under-picks. This comes as no surprise as it is no secret, that the public has a tendency (at least a slight) to favor Over-picks.
Some part of the found “value” can be explained by weather-factors, as a wind-component is not included in the simulation algorithm, but it still looks like The Handicapper might find a bit “too much” value for certain Under-picks. I do not consider it a problem if the simulation results by The Handicapper are very different from market lines. Nowadays there is too much consensus-oriented thinking and decision-making and I do not mind having an opinion and sometimes being wrong. This said, my recommendation is to go easy with Totals-picks, at least in the beginning of the season. The simulation results for Totals picks should serve as a starting point for one’s analysis and not as the ultimate truth. For example today’s game in Colorado between Rockies and Cubs serves as a good example of what I am trying to say. The simulation results shows there is big value on an Under 10 runs bet, but the current Expected Value of 1.23 might be a bit too high. I think the Under is an EV+ bet in the long run, but there might not be as much value as the simulation result shows.
Some part of the found “value” can be explained by weather-factors, as a wind-component is not included in the simulation algorithm, but it still looks like The Handicapper might find a bit “too much” value for certain Under-picks. I do not consider it a problem if the simulation results by The Handicapper are very different from market lines. Nowadays there is too much consensus-oriented thinking and decision-making and I do not mind having an opinion and sometimes being wrong. This said, my recommendation is to go easy with Totals-picks, at least in the beginning of the season. The simulation results for Totals picks should serve as a starting point for one’s analysis and not as the ultimate truth. For example today’s game in Colorado between Rockies and Cubs serves as a good example of what I am trying to say. The simulation results shows there is big value on an Under 10 runs bet, but the current Expected Value of 1.23 might be a bit too high. I think the Under is an EV+ bet in the long run, but there might not be as much value as the simulation result shows.
