The Totals picks have got off to a slow start in the first days of MLB Regular Season. As there is no point in making any deeper analysis after a few days and a couple of picks, I am just making some notes about my thoughts.
Some part of the found “value” can be explained by weather-factors, as a wind-component is not included in the simulation algorithm, but it still looks like The Handicapper might find a bit “too much” value for certain Under-picks. I do not consider it a problem if the simulation results by The Handicapper are very different from market lines. Nowadays there is too much consensus-oriented thinking and decision-making and I do not mind having an opinion and sometimes being wrong. This said, my recommendation is to go easy with Totals-picks, at least in the beginning of the season. The simulation results for Totals picks should serve as a starting point for one’s analysis and not as the ultimate truth. For example today’s game in Colorado between Rockies and Cubs serves as a good example of what I am trying to say. The simulation results shows there is big value on an Under 10 runs bet, but the current Expected Value of 1.23 might be a bit too high. I think the Under is an EV+ bet in the long run, but there might not be as much value as the simulation result shows.