By Harri Kairavuo | eastsideportsanalysis.com
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​Most articles with the topic/title including/starting with “How to bet on ...” or ”How to win on ...” are usually written on a very general level and doesn’t bring much to the table. The articles also usually include a list of 5-10 things to do / not to do, for example “Bet on home underdogs” or “Bankroll management - avoid parlays”. Bankroll management is for sure very important for a successive sports bettor, but all kind of advice that includes some kind of trend following or using some simple patterns, are basically worthless.
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By Harri Kairavuo | eastsideportsanalysis.com

​This is the most exciting time of the year for the hardcore MLB fan when the first MLB Spring Training games are just around the corner. Eastside Sports Analysis and The Handicapper are ready for yet another season, which hopefully will be successful on the betting front.

By Harri Kairavuo | eastsideportsanalysis.com
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The back-testing algorithm for NHL has been updated with the latest release (v6.3.6) of The Handicapper. The algorithm was modified, because the dataset The Handicapper uses does not include historical line information on NHL games, just information on who was playing with respective playing times.

​Previously the algorithm projected the lines based on playing times, which in the end was not an optimal way of doing it, because the lines were allocated different weights when calculating skill levels for teams. With the changes made, the algorithm is now simply allocating equal weights to all skaters, which is not an optimal way either, but produces results which are better aligned with actual calculations made on game days.

By Harri Kairavuo | eastsideportsanalysis.com

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​There are many ways and various approaches on how to build a betting model. This article gives an example of how to build a (very) simple power-rating based NBA-model and shows how to implement each step in an Excel-workbook. The Excel-file can be downloaded below.

By Harri Kairavuo | eastsideportsanalysis.com

This is the final edition for 2017 MLB Regular Season projections. The season has been simulated with a slightly modified simulation algorithm (compared to the first edition). Average runs per game (8.14) is lower than by projections made by some other analysts. This is due to the fact that my simulations are done with current projected starting lineups and does not take into account possible injuries and other roster transactions, which usually makes teams weaker in run prevention (compared to run scoring ability).

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By Harri Kairavuo | eastsideportsanalysis.com

The first projections for 2017 MLB Regular Season are out. As was the case with 2016 projections, the 2017 version are also a result of simulations for each regular season game without any "smoothing process" taking place in the end. What this means, is that I haven't take into consideration possible trades, which might make teams stronger/weaker (usually at the time around the trade deadline). That's why the difference (measured in wins) between the best and worst team is not as big as one could imagine.

By Harri Kairavuo | eastsideportsanalysis.com

It took a while to publish this years MLB Regular Season projections. Now when they are finally here I have to admit I am pretty satisfied with the result. I understand how silly that sounds, because we are talking about projections (the result is unknown), but the reason to my satisfaction is rather that the projections are looking pretty logical without any "human interaction". What this means is that the projections are a result of a simulation process by The Handicapper without any smoothing in the end.
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By Harri Kairavuo | eastsideportsanalysis.com

We are now one month in to the MLB Regular Season and it is time to take look what have happened so far on the field and in the betting account.

By Harri Kairavuo | eastsideportsanalysis.com

The Totals picks have got off to a slow start in the first days of MLB Regular Season. As there is no point in making any deeper analysis after a few days and a couple of picks, I am just making some notes about my thoughts.